Dakota County leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 86% of adults in Dakota County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dakota County, ~48% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dakota County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Dakota County leans more Democratic than 12 of 14 neighbors.
Dakota County runs about 7 points more Democratic than Minnesota as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Dakota County. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+26) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 58 points.
Why Dakota County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dakota County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 83% of residents in Dakota County live in densely developed areas, about 47 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Dakota County sits in the top quarter (about 45%, above 95% of counties).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Dakota County, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Dakota County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Dakota County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Dakota County have completed high school, above 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Scott County, MN R+5
- Ramsey County, MN D+43
- Hennepin County, MN D+43
- Washington County, MN D+10
- Carver County, MN R+8
- Rice County, MN Even
- Pierce County, WI R+19
- Anoka County, MN Even
- Goodhue County, MN R+22
- St. Croix County, WI R+20
Counties with Similar Populations
- Monterey County, CA D+29
- Jefferson Parish, LA D+4
- Sarasota County, FL R+17
- Santa Barbara County, CA D+26
- Lucas County, OH D+17
- Berks County, PA R+8
- Solano County, CA D+21
- Pinal County, AZ R+16
- York County, PA R+21
- East Baton Rouge Parish, LA D+23
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.