Castle Rock leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Castle Rock typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Castle Rock, ~26% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Castle Rock compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Castle Rock leans more Republican than 46 of 66 neighbors.
Castle Rock runs about 38 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Castle Rock is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Castle Rock. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+39) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 18 points.
Why Castle Rock leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Castle Rock, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Castle Rock votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Castle Rock runs about 38 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in Castle Rock are family households, above 81% of cities.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Castle Rock, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Castle Rock looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Castle Rock is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 93% of households in Castle Rock own their home, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Castle Rock have completed high school, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Waterford, MN R+21
- Northfield, MN D+24
- Randolph, MN R+38
- Farmington, MN R+11
- Stanton, MN R+24
- Hampton, MN R+40
- Elko New Market, MN R+28
- Dundas, MN R+9
- Lakeville, MN Even
- Little Chicago, MN R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lobata, WV R+74
- Denny Store, NC R+21
- Scale, KY R+52
- Leburn, KY R+71
- Warren, TN R+60
- Hillsboro, NY R+46
- Woody Creek, CO D+34
- Johnsonburg, NJ R+25
- Grant, LA R+87
- Williamson, PA R+62
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.