Castro-Upper Market is a Democratic stronghold. About 91% of voters here vote Democratic and 9% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Castro-Upper Market typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Castro-Upper Market, ~62% vote Democratic, ~6% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Castro-Upper Market compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Castro-Upper Market leans more Democratic than 43 of 45 neighbors.
Castro-Upper Market runs about 62 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Castro-Upper Market. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+89) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+75), a spread of about 15 points.
Why Castro-Upper Market leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Castro-Upper Market, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Castro-Upper Market live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Castro-Upper Market sits in the top quarter (about 80%, above 97% of neighborhoods). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 52% of adults in Castro-Upper Market have never been married, above 85% of neighborhoods.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Castro-Upper Market, San Francisco, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Castro-Upper Market looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Castro-Upper Market is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 74%, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Castro-Upper Market have completed high school, above 82% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Duboce Triangle, San Francisco, CA D+83
- Liberty Street Historic District, San Francisco, CA D+81
- Noe Valley, San Francisco, CA D+82
- Cole Valley, San Francisco, CA D+82
- Haight-Ashbury, San Francisco, CA D+82
- Twin Peaks, San Francisco, CA D+67
- Diamond Heights, San Francisco, CA D+71
- Mission, San Francisco, CA D+72
- Western Addition, San Francisco, CA D+73
- Glen Park, San Francisco, CA D+79
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Montclare, Elmwood Park, IL D+21
- Pine Grove, Chicago, IL D+71
- Northwest Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX R+21
- Garrison Park, Austin, TX D+50
- Spring Garden, Philadelphia, PA D+71
- Mercury Central, Hampton, VA D+47
- Mid-City, New Orleans, LA D+60
- Sellwood-Moreland, Portland, OR D+77
- Los Altos, Long Beach, CA D+24
- Eastside Lansing, Lansing, MI D+45
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.