Mission is a Democratic stronghold. About 86% of voters here vote Democratic and 14% Republican.
About 54% of adults in Mission typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mission, ~47% vote Democratic, ~8% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mission compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Mission leans more Democratic than 34 of 44 neighbors.
Mission runs about 52 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why Mission leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mission, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Mission live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Mission sits in the top quarter (about 56%, above 76% of neighborhoods). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 54% of adults in Mission have never been married, above 87% of neighborhoods.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Mission, San Francisco, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Mission looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 71% of households in Mission rent, about 46 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 11% of homes in Mission have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Mission have completed high school, below 81% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Liberty Street Historic District, San Francisco, CA D+81
- Duboce Triangle, San Francisco, CA D+83
- Potrero, San Francisco, CA D+79
- Noe Valley, San Francisco, CA D+82
- Castro-Upper Market, San Francisco, CA D+82
- Bernal Heights, San Francisco, CA D+78
- Diamond Heights, San Francisco, CA D+71
- South of Market, San Francisco, CA D+61
- Downtown San Francisco, San Francisco, CA D+56
- Western Addition, San Francisco, CA D+73
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Fenway-Kenmore, Boston, MA D+67
- New Brighton, Staten Island, NY D+36
- South Dorchester, Boston, MA D+57
- Woodhaven, Queens, NY D+9
- Watts, Los Angeles, CA D+49
- Dyker Heights, Brooklyn, NY R+20
- Greater Memorial, Houston, TX R+14
- Auburndale, Queens, NY R+2
- Northeast, Anaheim, CA D+16
- Capitol Hill, Washington, DC D+77
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.