Clay County is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Clay County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~12% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 7 of 12 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 31 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+68) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+56), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Clay County, about 94% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 15% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 13 points below the U.S. average of 28%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Clay County, AR sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Turnout in Clay County sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dunklin County, MO R+50
- Greene County, AR R+58
- Butler County, MO R+52
- Ripley County, MO R+70
- Randolph County, AR R+63
- Pemiscot County, MO R+30
- Stoddard County, MO R+62
- Craighead County, AR R+27
- Mississippi County, AR R+10
- New Madrid County, MO R+46
Counties with Similar Populations
- Las Animas County, CO R+13
- Fulton County, PA R+70
- Livingston County, MO R+52
- Carbon County, WY R+57
- Moultrie County, IL R+54
- Harrison County, IA R+42
- San Juan County, UT R+19
- Jasper County, GA R+48
- Jefferson County, FL R+20
- Cannon County, TN R+69
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.