Clay County leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Clay County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~29% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 3 of 12 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 21 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 26 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Clay County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 55%, far above the Iowa average of 16%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Clay County, IA does.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Clay County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dickinson County, IA R+34
- Palo Alto County, IA R+44
- O'Brien County, IA R+54
- Emmet County, IA R+37
- Buena Vista County, IA R+21
- Osceola County, IA R+57
- Cherokee County, IA R+42
- Pocahontas County, IA R+48
- Jackson County, MN R+42
- Nobles County, MN R+28
Counties with Similar Populations
- Alamosa County, CO R+3
- Potter County, PA R+58
- Jasper County, MS D+2
- Atchison County, KS R+34
- New Madrid County, MO R+46
- Fayette County, AL R+68
- Hill County, MT R+23
- Brooks County, GA R+23
- Lawrence County, KY R+67
- Fountain County, IN R+58
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.