Clay County is a Republican stronghold. About 14% of voters here vote Democratic and 86% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Clay County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clay County, ~8% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clay County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Clay County leans more Republican than 17 of 21 neighbors.
Clay County runs about 41 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Clay County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+79) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+65), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Clay County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clay County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 12% of residents in Clay County live in densely developed areas, about 6 points below the Kentucky average of 18%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Clay County fits that profile on both counts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 72% of households in Clay County are family households, above 86% of counties.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Clay County, KY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Clay County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Clay County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 9 points below the Kentucky average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in Clay County have completed high school, below 98% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Laurel County, KY R+63
- Owsley County, KY R+74
- Knox County, KY R+65
- Jackson County, KY R+73
- Leslie County, KY R+76
- Lee County, KY R+67
- Perry County, KY R+61
- Breathitt County, KY R+62
- Whitley County, KY R+68
- Bell County, KY R+62
Counties with Similar Populations
- Lavaca County, TX R+64
- Buchanan County, VA R+67
- Carroll County, IN R+53
- Carbon County, UT R+56
- Lincoln County, NM R+28
- Yell County, AR R+59
- Breckinridge County, KY R+58
- Bourbon County, KY R+37
- Uinta County, WY R+62
- Greene County, NC R+15
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.