Clayton leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Clayton typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Clayton, ~17% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Clayton compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Clayton is the least Republican-leaning.
Clayton runs about 53 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Clayton is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Clayton. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+64) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+39), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Clayton leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Clayton, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Clayton votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Clayton runs about 53 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Clayton, NM sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Clayton looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Clayton is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Texline, TX R+81
- Seneca, NM R+68
- Sedan, NM R+70
- Grenville, NM R+62
- Felt, OK R+86
- Wheeless, OK R+86
- Hayden, NM R+68
- North Colfax Union, NM R+70
Cities with Similar Populations
- Seneca, KS R+59
- Acme, PA R+49
- Paddock Lake, WI R+19
- West Rutland, VT R+20
- Williamstown, VT R+40
- Wartrace, TN R+66
- Silver Lake, KS R+40
- Kenhorst, PA R+3
- Sag Harbor, NY D+24
- Morrisville, NY R+24
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.