Duval County leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Duval County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Duval County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Duval County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Duval County leans more Republican than 3 of 6 neighbors.
Politically, Duval County sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Duval County. The west side is the most split-leaning (R+30) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Duval County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Duval County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in Duval County hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points below the Texas average of 26%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Duval County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Duval County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Duval County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 11 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 72% of adults in Duval County have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Jim Wells County, TX R+14
- Jim Hogg County, TX R+2
- Kleberg County, TX R+6
- Brooks County, TX D+7
- Live Oak County, TX R+61
- McMullen County, TX R+59
- Kenedy County, TX R+44
- Nueces County, TX R+4
- Bee County, TX R+22
- San Patricio County, TX R+31
Counties with Similar Populations
- Scott County, AR R+70
- Emery County, UT R+73
- Swift County, MN R+35
- Montgomery County, MS R+2
- Sac County, IA R+51
- Martin County, IN R+59
- Mountrail County, ND R+35
- Grundy County, MO R+57
- Pulaski County, GA R+31
- Parmer County, TX R+50
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.