Elm Flat is a Republican stronghold. About 23% of voters here vote Democratic and 77% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Elm Flat typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elm Flat, ~15% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elm Flat compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elm Flat leans more Republican than 15 of 57 neighbors.
Elm Flat runs about 40 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Elm Flat. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+39), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Elm Flat leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elm Flat, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in Elm Flat drive to work alone, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Non-English at home and voter turnout
Places with a low non-English-at-home share tend to turn out at a higher rate; Elm Flat, TX sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Elm Flat looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Elm Flat is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Eureka, TX R+68
- Mildred, TX R+68
- Goodlow, TX R+39
- Kerens, TX R+48
- Powell, TX R+51
- Round Prairie, TX R+39
- Navarro, TX R+69
- Cheneyboro, TX R+69
- Roane, TX R+32
- Angus, TX R+69
Cities with Similar Populations
- Randolph, IL R+34
- West Palmyra, ME R+35
- Hanna, WV R+62
- Spragueville, NY R+44
- Flowell, UT R+74
- Martinsdale, MT R+62
- Kalapana, HI D+20
- Knightsville, PA R+71
- Norris, IL R+37
- Wellsboro, IN R+45
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.