Elma leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Elma typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elma, ~18% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elma compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elma leans more Republican than 38 of 46 neighbors.
Elma runs about 35 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Why Elma leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elma, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Elma, about 95% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 16% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 8 points below the Iowa average of 24%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as Elma, IA does.
Why turnout in Elma looks the way it does
Turnout in Elma sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Alta Vista, IA R+46
- Lourdes, IA R+48
- Saratoga, IA R+50
- Riceville, IA R+48
- Jerico, IA R+46
- New Haven, IA R+49
- North Washington, IA R+46
- Schley, IA R+45
- Colwell, IA R+44
- Saude, IA R+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Eugene, MO R+70
- Sharptown, MD R+37
- Meldrum, TX R+50
- Midway, MN R+58
- Mc Donough, NY R+45
- Winside, NE R+72
- Cochise, AZ R+44
- Havana, AR R+71
- Soper, OK R+74
- Kaw City, OK R+67
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.