Elsmere leans Democratic by roughly 28 points: about 64% of voters vote Democratic and 36% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Elsmere typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elsmere, ~38% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elsmere compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elsmere leans more Democratic than 145 of 183 neighbors.
Elsmere runs about 14 points more Democratic than Delaware as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Elsmere. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+37) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+19), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Elsmere leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elsmere, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 95% of residents in Elsmere live in densely developed areas, about 59 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 45% of adults in Elsmere have never been married, above 97% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Elsmere, DE sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Elsmere looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Elsmere is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 31% of households in Elsmere rent, above 85% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in Elsmere report food insecurity, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Wilmington, DE D+39
- Newport, DE D+22
- Wilmington Manor, DE D+31
- Rockland, DE D+22
- Edgemoor, DE D+51
- New Castle, DE D+48
- Bellefonte, DE D+26
- Hockessin, DE D+17
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wellsboro, PA R+35
- Macon, MO R+47
- Beardstown, IL R+14
- Lansing, NY D+41
- Mentor-on-the-Lake, OH R+12
- Violet, LA D+25
- Richland, MS R+42
- Port Matilda, PA R+2
- Inwood, FL Even
- Decatur, TN R+72
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Delaware Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.