Fair Oaks leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Fair Oaks typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fair Oaks, ~45% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fair Oaks compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Fair Oaks leans more Democratic than 97 of 178 neighbors.
Fair Oaks runs about 35 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Why Fair Oaks leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fair Oaks, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 94% of residents in Fair Oaks live in densely developed areas, about 58 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Fair Oaks sits in the top quarter (about 69%, in the top fraction of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in Fair Oaks have never been married, above 93% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Fair Oaks, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Fair Oaks looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Fair Oaks is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fairfax, VA D+35
- Oakton, VA D+37
- Franklin Farm, VA D+36
- Chantilly, VA D+21
- Clifton, VA D+19
- Centreville, VA D+26
- Burke Centre, VA D+32
- Vienna, VA D+40
- Reston, VA D+45
- McNair, VA D+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Pasadena, MD R+12
- Foster City, CA D+50
- Reisterstown, MD D+28
- University Park, FL R+33
- Placerville, CA R+21
- Boone, NC D+20
- Ambler, PA D+25
- Williston, ND R+58
- Melrose Park, IL D+22
- Troy, OH R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.