Fern Valley leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Fern Valley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fern Valley, ~29% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fern Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Fern Valley leans more Democratic than 27 of 35 neighbors.
Fern Valley runs about 11 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Why Fern Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fern Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 68% of adults in Fern Valley hold a bachelor's degree, about 40 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Fern Valley, CA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Fern Valley looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 29% of households in Fern Valley rent, above 83% of cities. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and Fern Valley sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Idyllwild, CA R+18
- Idyllwild-Pine Cove, CA D+11
- Thomas Mountain, CA R+17
- Mountain Center, CA R+19
- Palm Springs, CA D+37
- Anza, CA R+20
- Cahuilla, CA R+27
- Pinyon Pines, CA R+2
- Cathedral City, CA D+22
- Rancho Mirage, CA D+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Adrian, WA R+49
- Wetmore, OR R+49
- Kirklands Crossroads, AL R+66
- Kinzua, OR R+49
- Los Pachecos, NM D+29
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.