Thomas Mountain leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 31% of adults in Thomas Mountain typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Thomas Mountain, ~13% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~69% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Thomas Mountain compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Thomas Mountain leans more Republican than 25 of 35 neighbors.
Thomas Mountain runs about 37 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Thomas Mountain is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Thomas Mountain. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+22) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Thomas Mountain leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Thomas Mountain, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Thomas Mountain live in densely developed areas, about 56 points below the California average of 58%. Thomas Mountain runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Thomas Mountain, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Thomas Mountain looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 84% of adults in Thomas Mountain have completed high school, about 6 points below the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mountain Center, CA R+19
- Idyllwild, CA R+18
- Anza, CA R+20
- Fern Valley, CA D+9
- Cahuilla, CA R+27
- Pinyon Pines, CA R+2
- Idyllwild-Pine Cove, CA D+11
- Holcomb Village, CA R+34
- Aguanga, CA R+34
- Palm Springs, CA D+37
Cities with Similar Populations
- Port Hueneme Cbc Base, CA R+3
- Shelly, GA R+62
- Cherry Falls, WV R+66
- Griffith Creek, TN R+74
- Russet, WV R+64
- Lewis Creek, IN R+64
- Tuckahoe, WV R+46
- Buffalo Springs, ND R+73
- Travellers Rest, KY R+80
- Jump River, WI R+49
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.