Carroll County leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Carroll County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carroll County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carroll County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carroll County leans more Republican than 19 of 21 neighbors.
Carroll County runs about 52 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Carroll County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carroll County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+38) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Carroll County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carroll County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carroll County votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Carroll County runs about 52 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Carroll County are family households, above 95% of counties.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carroll County, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Carroll County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carroll County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 85% of households in Carroll County own their home, above 95% of counties. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Carroll County have completed high school, above 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Howard County, MD D+40
- Baltimore County, MD D+28
- Frederick County, MD D+10
- Adams County, PA R+35
- Baltimore City, MD D+72
- Montgomery County, MD D+52
- York County, PA R+21
- Harford County, MD R+4
- Anne Arundel County, MD D+17
- Washington County, MD R+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Guadalupe County, TX R+23
- Porter County, IN R+11
- Winnebago County, WI R+3
- Lee County, AL R+13
- Alamance County, NC R+4
- Kootenai County, ID R+46
- Scott County, IA D+5
- Hendricks County, IN R+20
- McLean County, IL D+5
- Bay County, FL R+35
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.