Girard Estates leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Girard Estates typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Girard Estates, ~45% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Girard Estates compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Girard Estates leans more Democratic than 1 of 38 neighbors.
Girard Estates runs about 19 points more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole. Pennsylvania is roughly evenly split, and Girard Estates sits clearly on the Democratic side.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Girard Estates. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+65) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+29), a spread of about 94 points.
Why Girard Estates leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Girard Estates, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Girard Estates live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. Girard Estates runs against the grain of Pennsylvania, a Democratic-leaning outlier in a roughly evenly split state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Girard Estates, Philadelphia, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Girard Estates looks the way it does
Turnout in Girard Estates sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Point Breeze-Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA D+73
- South Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA D+22
- Marconi Plaza-Packer Park, Philadelphia, PA R+23
- Grays Ferry, Philadelphia, PA D+62
- Wharton-Hawthorne-Bella Vista, Philadelphia, PA D+60
- Schuylkill Southwest, Philadelphia, PA D+79
- Pennsport-Whitman-Queen, Philadelphia, PA D+42
- Bella Vista, Philadelphia, PA D+76
- Rittenhouse Square, Philadelphia, PA D+67
- City Center West, Philadelphia, PA D+70
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Citrus Grove, Glendale, CA D+5
- Playa del Ray, Playa Del Rey, CA D+43
- Lea Hill, Auburn, WA D+17
- North Westminster, Westminster, CO D+13
- Manayunk, Philadelphia, PA D+56
- Getty Square, Yonkers, NY D+51
- Great Kills, Staten Island, NY R+51
- Ottawa, Toledo, OH D+55
- Bay View, Milwaukee, WI D+51
- Bay Park, San Diego, CA D+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.