Harford County is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Harford County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Harford County, ~39% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Harford County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Harford County leans more Republican than 8 of 13 neighbors.
Harford County runs about 32 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Harford County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Harford County. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 49 points.
Why Harford County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Harford County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Harford County votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Harford County runs about 32 points more Republican.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Harford County, MD does.
Why turnout in Harford County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Harford County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 82% of households in Harford County own their home, above 87% of counties. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Harford County have completed high school, above 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Baltimore County, MD D+28
- Cecil County, MD R+29
- Baltimore City, MD D+72
- Kent County, MD Even
- Anne Arundel County, MD D+17
- Queen Anne's County, MD R+27
- Howard County, MD D+40
- Carroll County, MD R+24
- York County, PA R+21
- New Castle County, DE D+33
Counties with Similar Populations
- McLennan County, TX R+19
- Kalamazoo County, MI D+17
- Weber County, UT R+21
- Marin County, CA D+48
- Cumberland County, PA R+9
- St. Clair County, IL D+13
- St. Tammany Parish, LA R+35
- Yakima County, WA R+6
- Jefferson County, TX D+8
- Madison County, IL R+11
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.