Cumberland County leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Cumberland County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Cumberland County, ~37% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Cumberland County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Cumberland County leans more Republican than 1 of 11 neighbors.
Cumberland County runs about 7 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Cumberland County. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+46), a spread of about 51 points.
Why Cumberland County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Cumberland County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Cumberland County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 66%, far above the Pennsylvania average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Cumberland County, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Cumberland County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Cumberland County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Perry County, PA R+52
- Dauphin County, PA D+12
- Adams County, PA R+35
- York County, PA R+21
- Juniata County, PA R+62
- Lebanon County, PA R+31
- Franklin County, PA R+41
- Mifflin County, PA R+58
- Snyder County, PA R+50
- Lancaster County, PA R+17
Counties with Similar Populations
- McLennan County, TX R+19
- Harford County, MD R+4
- St. Clair County, IL D+13
- Kalamazoo County, MI D+17
- Yakima County, WA R+6
- Weber County, UT R+21
- Marin County, CA D+48
- Jefferson County, TX D+8
- St. Tammany Parish, LA R+35
- Clay County, MO R+7
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.