Hartland leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Hartland typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hartland, ~15% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hartland compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Hartland leans more Republican than 24 of 27 neighbors.
Hartland runs about 68 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Hartland is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Hartland leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hartland, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Hartland live in densely developed areas, about 54 points below the California average of 58%. Hartland runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Hartland, CA sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Hartland looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 38% of households in Hartland rent, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in Hartland have more than one occupant per room, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Miramonte, CA R+48
- Badger, CA R+46
- Dunlap, CA R+45
- Hume, CA R+55
- Squaw Valley, CA R+43
- Kings Canyon National Pk, CA R+55
- Orange Cove, CA D+6
Cities with Similar Populations
- Holmes, IA R+46
- Oscar, WV R+64
- Tilden, ND R+39
- Arneytown, NJ R+33
- Atwater, IL R+52
- Oak Bowery, AL R+20
- Harveysburg, IN R+64
- Raynor, VA R+32
- Mozer, WV R+63
- Broughtentown, KY R+73
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.