Jasper leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Jasper typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Jasper, ~28% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Jasper compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Jasper is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Jasper sits close to the rest of Florida.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Jasper. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+53), a spread of about 67 points.
Why Jasper leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Jasper, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Jasper votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 26%, far below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Jasper sits in the bottom quarter (about 12%, below 86% of cities).
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Jasper, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Jasper looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Jasper is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 42%, about 15 points below the Florida average of 56%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Purvis Still, FL R+56
- Fort Union, FL R+70
- Suwannee Springs, FL R+62
- Jennings, FL R+41
- Rixford, FL R+64
- Melrose, GA R+62
- Falmouth, FL R+71
- Statenville, GA R+66
- Ellaville, FL R+64
- Live Oak, FL R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Nitro, WV R+27
- Seabrook, NH R+6
- Calhoun, LA R+80
- Berne, IN R+63
- Rusk, TX R+39
- Lauderdale-by-the-Sea, FL R+14
- Greenfield, OH R+52
- Mountain Grove, MO R+65
- Brookville, IN R+61
- Fircrest, WA D+34
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.