Kentucky leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Kentucky typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Kentucky, ~25% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Kentucky compares
Among states within 500 miles, Kentucky leans more Republican than 16 of 17 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Kentucky. The southeast side is the most split-leaning (R+67) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Kentucky leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Kentucky, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican, and Kentucky sits in the bottom quarter on developed land relative to similar places. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Kentucky fits that profile on both counts.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a low never-married share and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Kentucky does.
Why turnout in Kentucky looks the way it does
Turnout in Kentucky sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Tennessee R+23
- Indiana R+15
- Ohio R+8
- West Virginia R+41
- Illinois D+15
- Alabama R+23
- Georgia D+4
- North Carolina Even
- South Carolina R+12
- Virginia D+10
States with Similar Populations
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.