Tennessee leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Tennessee typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tennessee, ~26% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tennessee compares
Among states within 500 miles, Tennessee leans more Republican than 10 of 14 neighbors.
Politics vary noticeably by county within Tennessee. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+16) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+58), a spread of about 73 points.
Why Tennessee leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per state to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tennessee, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 31% of adults in Tennessee hold a bachelor's degree, below 76% of states.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Tennessee sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Tennessee looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tennessee is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby States
- Kentucky R+28
- Alabama R+23
- Georgia D+4
- Mississippi R+13
- Indiana R+15
- South Carolina R+12
- West Virginia R+41
- North Carolina Even
- Arkansas R+25
- Illinois D+15
States with Similar Populations
- Massachusetts D+26
- Indiana R+15
- Arizona Even
- Maryland D+33
- Missouri R+14
- Washington D+16
- Wisconsin Even
- Colorado D+12
- Minnesota D+5
- Virginia D+10
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.