Lake Forest is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Lake Forest typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Forest, ~34% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Forest compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Forest sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 43 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 17 leaning the other way.
Lake Forest runs about 18 points more Republican than California as a whole.
Why Lake Forest leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Lake Forest. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Lake Forest, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Lake Forest looks the way it does
Turnout in Lake Forest sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Mission Viejo, CA R+3
- Foothill Ranch, CA D+7
- Laguna Woods, CA D+12
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Rancho Santa Margarita, CA R+2
- Top-of-the-World, CA D+5
- Aliso Viejo, CA D+11
- Trabuco Canyon, CA R+6
- Modjeska, CA R+3
- Silverado, CA R+8
Cities with Similar Populations
- Northglenn, CO D+12
- Casper, WY R+37
- North Miami, FL D+41
- Cookeville, TN R+39
- Hanford, CA R+15
- Doral, FL R+18
- South San Francisco, CA D+43
- Goose Creek, SC R+5
- Waltham, MA D+43
- Castro Valley, CA D+33
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.