Mission Viejo is a true toss-up. About 48% of voters here vote Democratic and 52% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Mission Viejo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mission Viejo, ~37% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mission Viejo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mission Viejo leans more Republican than 26 of 54 neighbors.
Mission Viejo runs about 24 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Mission Viejo is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Mission Viejo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mission Viejo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mission Viejo votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Mission Viejo runs about 24 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Mission Viejo, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Mission Viejo looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Mission Viejo is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake Forest, CA D+2
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Rancho Santa Margarita, CA R+2
- Laguna Woods, CA D+12
- Coto de Caza, CA R+16
- Ladera Ranch, CA Even
- Aliso Viejo, CA D+11
- Trabuco Canyon, CA R+6
- Foothill Ranch, CA D+7
- Top-of-the-World, CA D+5
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bloomington, IL D+11
- Cicero, IL D+34
- Terre Haute, IN R+6
- Mountain View, CA D+46
- Westland, MI D+15
- Waldorf, MD D+60
- Littleton, CO D+17
- Madera, CA Even
- Lawton, OK R+9
- Slidell, LA R+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.