Rancho Santa Margarita is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Rancho Santa Margarita typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rancho Santa Margarita, ~34% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rancho Santa Margarita compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Rancho Santa Margarita sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 25 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 33 leaning the other way.
Rancho Santa Margarita runs about 23 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Rancho Santa Margarita sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Rancho Santa Margarita. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+7), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Rancho Santa Margarita leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rancho Santa Margarita, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rancho Santa Margarita votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Rancho Santa Margarita runs about 23 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Rancho Santa Margarita, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Rancho Santa Margarita looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Rancho Santa Margarita is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Trabuco Canyon, CA R+6
- Coto de Caza, CA R+16
- Mission Viejo, CA R+3
- Lake Forest, CA D+2
- Foothill Ranch, CA D+7
- Modjeska, CA R+3
- Silverado, CA R+8
- Ladera Ranch, CA Even
- Laguna Hills, CA D+2
- Laguna Woods, CA D+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Texas City, TX D+10
- Roseville, MI D+7
- East Brunswick, NJ D+4
- Benton, AR R+39
- Hurst, TX R+10
- El Centro, CA D+6
- Elmhurst, IL D+18
- Downingtown, PA D+14
- Lagrange, GA Even
- Oro Valley, AZ D+3
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.