Lancaster County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Lancaster County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lancaster County, ~33% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lancaster County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lancaster County leans more Republican than 6 of 11 neighbors.
Lancaster County runs about 15 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lancaster County. The southeast side is the most split-leaning (R+52) and the south side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 51 points.
Why Lancaster County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lancaster County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lancaster County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 59%, well above the Pennsylvania average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 71% of households in Lancaster County are family households, above 82% of counties.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Lancaster County, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Lancaster County looks the way it does
Turnout in Lancaster County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Lebanon County, PA R+31
- York County, PA R+21
- Berks County, PA R+8
- Dauphin County, PA D+12
- Chester County, PA D+14
- Cecil County, MD R+29
- Harford County, MD R+4
- Cumberland County, PA R+9
- New Castle County, DE D+33
- Schuylkill County, PA R+36
Counties with Similar Populations
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Volusia County, FL R+17
- Ramsey County, MN D+43
- Dane County, WI D+48
- Pasco County, FL R+24
- Guilford County, NC D+30
- Summit County, OH D+10
- Spokane County, WA R+3
- Montgomery County, OH D+6
- New Castle County, DE D+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.