Pasco County leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Pasco County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pasco County, ~27% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pasco County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Pasco County leans more Republican than 3 of 6 neighbors.
Pasco County runs about 11 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Pasco County. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+37) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Pasco County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pasco County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Pasco County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 65%, modestly above the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Pasco County, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Pasco County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Pasco County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Hernando County, FL R+33
- Hillsborough County, FL Even
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Citrus County, FL R+43
- Polk County, FL R+18
- Sumter County, FL R+31
- Manatee County, FL R+15
- Lake County, FL R+25
- Hardee County, FL R+46
- Marion County, FL R+28
Counties with Similar Populations
- Dane County, WI D+48
- Volusia County, FL R+17
- New Castle County, DE D+33
- Lancaster County, PA R+17
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Ramsey County, MN D+43
- Union County, NJ D+26
- Delaware County, PA D+27
- Bristol County, MA Even
- Guilford County, NC D+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.