Lancaster leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Lancaster typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lancaster, ~42% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lancaster compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lancaster leans more Democratic than 156 of 157 neighbors.
Lancaster runs about 16 points more Democratic than Pennsylvania as a whole. Pennsylvania is roughly evenly split, and Lancaster sits clearly on the Democratic side.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lancaster. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+26) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Lancaster leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lancaster, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 84% of residents in Lancaster live in densely developed areas, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Lancaster sits in the top quarter (about 39%, above 86% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in Lancaster have never been married, above 85% of cities.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Lancaster, PA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Lancaster looks the way it does
Turnout in Lancaster sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Millersville, PA D+4
- East Petersburg, PA R+6
- Willow Street, PA R+15
- Witmer, PA R+27
- Smoketown, PA R+36
- Mountville, PA R+5
- Lampeter, PA R+25
- Landisville, PA R+5
- Leola, PA R+29
- Lititz, PA R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wilmington, NC D+8
- Corona, CA Even
- Garden Grove, CA Even
- Ann Arbor, MI D+61
- North Hollywood, CA D+32
- Van Nuys, CA D+32
- Erie, PA D+15
- Enterprise, NV D+6
- Pembroke Pines, FL D+14
- Naperville, IL D+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.