Lincoln County is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 77% of adults in Lincoln County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lincoln County, ~18% vote Democratic, ~58% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lincoln County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Lincoln County leans more Republican than 6 of 13 neighbors.
Lincoln County runs about 33 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Lincoln County. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+64) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+44), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Lincoln County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lincoln County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In Lincoln County, about 92% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 10 points below the U.S. average of 28%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 73% of households in Lincoln County are family households, above 90% of counties.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lincoln County, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Lincoln County looks the way it does
Turnout in Lincoln County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Warren County, MO R+50
- Calhoun County, IL R+56
- St. Charles County, MO R+14
- Pike County, MO R+55
- Montgomery County, MO R+56
- Jersey County, IL R+44
- St. Louis County, MO D+28
- Franklin County, MO R+48
- Greene County, IL R+56
- Pike County, IL R+57
Counties with Similar Populations
- Van Zandt County, TX R+72
- Mercer County, WV R+50
- Washington County, OH R+42
- Washington County, VT D+19
- Lyon County, NV R+42
- Russell County, AL D+6
- Bradford County, PA R+49
- Blount County, AL R+79
- Otter Tail County, MN R+35
- Sampson County, NC R+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.