Little Elm is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Little Elm typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Little Elm, ~33% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Little Elm compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Little Elm leans more Democratic than 63 of 71 neighbors.
Little Elm runs about 17 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Little Elm is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Little Elm. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+29) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+15), a spread of about 44 points.
Why Little Elm leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Little Elm, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Little Elm votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Little Elm runs about 17 points more Democratic.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Little Elm, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Little Elm looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Little Elm is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hackberry, TX R+3
- Lincoln Park, TX R+5
- Lakewood Village, TX R+25
- Oak Point, TX R+22
- Aubrey, TX R+12
- Cross Roads, TX R+14
- Frisco, TX R+5
- Mustang, TX R+27
- Shady Shores, TX R+37
- Prosper, TX R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bay City, MI R+12
- Rocky Mount, NC D+35
- Taylor, MI D+6
- Port Orange, FL R+26
- Coon Rapids, MN D+9
- Grove City, OH R+13
- Decatur, AL R+18
- Dearborn Heights, MI R+6
- Pottstown, PA D+7
- Cupertino, CA D+31
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.