Stockton, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Stockton

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Stockton is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.

 

About 50% of adults in the Stockton area typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Stockton area, ~26% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Stockton compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Stockton leans more Democratic than 42 of 47 neighbors.

Stockton runs about 16 points more Republican than California as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Stockton. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+15) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+20), a spread of about 35 points.

Why Stockton leans the way it does

Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in the Stockton area. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Stockton, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Stockton looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Stockton is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 38% of households in the Stockton area rent, above 93% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 22% of adults in the Stockton area report food insecurity, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.