Locust Grove leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 87% of adults in Locust Grove typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Locust Grove, ~33% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Locust Grove compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Locust Grove leans more Republican than 22 of 78 neighbors.
Locust Grove runs about 31 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Locust Grove is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Locust Grove. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 31 points.
Why Locust Grove leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Locust Grove, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Locust Grove votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Locust Grove runs about 31 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Locust Grove, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Locust Grove looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Locust Grove is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Locust Grove own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake of the Woods, VA R+17
- Wilderness, VA R+30
- Indian Town, VA R+38
- Richardsville, VA R+48
- Lignum, VA R+45
- Burr Hill, VA R+50
- Parker, VA R+35
- Gold Dale, VA R+36
- Brockroad, VA R+29
- Rhoadesville, VA R+51
Cities with Similar Populations
- Armona, CA R+19
- Tuscola, IL R+44
- Sergeant Bluff, IA R+30
- Newfane, NY R+33
- Southampton, MA Even
- Stonewall, LA R+75
- Citra, FL R+46
- Bourg, LA R+78
- Sandown, NH R+15
- Bailey, CO R+17
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.