Lower Lake leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Lower Lake typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lower Lake, ~25% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lower Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lower Lake leans more Republican than 21 of 30 neighbors.
Lower Lake runs about 29 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lower Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lower Lake. The southeast side is the most split-leaning (R+15) and the northwest side is the least split-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Lower Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lower Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lower Lake votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Lower Lake runs about 29 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Lower Lake sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 76% of cities).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Lower Lake, CA sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Lower Lake looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 35% of households in Lower Lake rent, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in Lower Lake have completed high school, below 79% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Clearlake, CA Even
- Seigler Springs, CA D+4
- Hidden Valley Lake, CA R+13
- Clearlake Park, CA R+8
- Cobb, CA D+5
- Loch Lomond, CA Even
- Clearlake Oaks, CA Even
- Middletown, CA R+9
- Rumsey, CA R+17
- Kelseyville, CA D+2
Cities with Similar Populations
- Millville, UT R+50
- Tool, TX R+69
- Anthony, KS R+66
- Henryville, PA R+11
- Lacon, IL R+38
- Lake City, TN R+54
- Clear Brook, VA R+37
- Georgetown, PA R+52
- Elida, OH R+47
- Walton Hills, OH R+15
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.