Middletown leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 59% of adults in Middletown typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middletown, ~27% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middletown compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middletown leans more Republican than 30 of 38 neighbors.
Middletown runs about 29 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Middletown is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Middletown. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Middletown leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middletown, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Middletown votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Middletown runs about 29 points more Republican.
Developed land, local retail density, and voter turnout
Places that combine a heavily developed built environment and sparse local retail within a mile tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Middletown, CA does.
Why turnout in Middletown looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 29% of households in Middletown rent, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Whispering Pines, CA R+21
- Hidden Valley Lake, CA R+13
- Cobb, CA D+5
- Loch Lomond, CA Even
- Seigler Springs, CA D+4
- Kellog, CA D+25
- Lower Lake, CA R+9
- Clearlake, CA Even
- Pope Valley, CA R+4
- Las Lomas, CA D+46
Cities with Similar Populations
- Canyonville, OR R+28
- Bristol, IL R+4
- Eros, LA R+80
- Pleasantdale, WV R+66
- Edgard, LA D+43
- Goldthwaite, TX R+65
- Lone Star, TX R+44
- Buchanan, TN R+64
- Dresser, WI R+33
- Mountain Lake Park, MD R+51
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.