Lower Vailsburg is a Democratic stronghold. About 86% of voters here vote Democratic and 14% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Lower Vailsburg typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lower Vailsburg, ~43% vote Democratic, ~7% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lower Vailsburg compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Lower Vailsburg leans more Democratic than 11 of 19 neighbors.
Lower Vailsburg runs about 66 points more Democratic than New Jersey as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Lower Vailsburg. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+84) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+62), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Lower Vailsburg leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lower Vailsburg, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in Lower Vailsburg live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 48% of adults in Lower Vailsburg have never been married, above 78% of neighborhoods.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Lower Vailsburg, Newark, NJ sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Lower Vailsburg looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lower Vailsburg is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 66% of households in Lower Vailsburg rent, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 36% of adults in Lower Vailsburg report food insecurity, above 90% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Upper Vailsburg, Newark, NJ D+80
- Academy Heights, Orange, NJ D+76
- Upper Clinton Hill, Newark, NJ D+80
- Fairmuont, Newark, NJ D+73
- Weequahic, Newark, NJ D+81
- Lower Clinton Hill, Newark, NJ D+79
- Hutton Park, West Orange, NJ D+61
- Springfield-Belmont, Newark, NJ D+77
- University Heights, Newark, NJ D+67
- Lower Roseville, Newark, NJ D+48
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Chisholm Creek, Wichita, KS D+9
- Roland Park-Homewood-Guilford, Baltimore, MD D+67
- Business District, Irvine, CA D+16
- North Collinwood, Cleveland, OH D+71
- Northwest Yonkers, Yonkers, NY D+33
- Encanto, San Diego, CA D+29
- South West, Washington, DC D+76
- Pacific Heights, San Francisco, CA D+69
- Greater Inwood, Houston, TX D+38
- New Tacoma, Tacoma, WA D+49
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.