Manteca leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 56% of adults in Manteca typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Manteca, ~26% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~44% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Manteca compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Manteca leans more Republican than 12 of 37 neighbors.
Manteca runs about 28 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Manteca is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Manteca. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+16) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Manteca leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Manteca, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Manteca votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 81%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Manteca are family households, above 85% of cities. Manteca runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Manteca, CA does.
Why turnout in Manteca looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 7% of homes in Manteca have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lathrop, CA D+3
- Summer Home, CA R+36
- Five Corners, CA R+43
- Ripon, CA R+35
- French Camp, CA R+5
- Simms, CA R+45
- Salida, CA R+17
- Van Allen, CA R+55
- Banta, CA R+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Elkhart, IN R+15
- Utica, MI R+22
- Fort Smith, AR R+16
- Macomb, MI R+28
- Brandon, FL Even
- Walnut Creek, CA D+47
- Kennesaw, GA D+7
- Bryan, TX D+7
- Napa, CA D+32
- Sanford, FL D+9
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.