Brandon is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Brandon typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Brandon, ~31% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Brandon compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Brandon sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 53 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 7 leaning the other way.
Brandon runs about 14 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Brandon sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Brandon. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+18) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+18), a spread of about 36 points.
Why Brandon leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Brandon, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Brandon votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Brandon runs about 14 points more Democratic.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Brandon, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Brandon looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Brandon is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in Brandon rent, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Valrico, FL R+15
- Bloomingdale, FL R+15
- Palm River-Clair Mel, FL D+10
- Mango, FL R+3
- Seffner, FL R+12
- Dover, FL R+32
- Riverview, FL D+6
- East Lake-Orient Park, FL D+35
- Fish Hawk, FL R+24
- Durant, FL R+31
Cities with Similar Populations
- Macomb, MI R+28
- Fort Smith, AR R+16
- Elkhart, IN R+15
- Kennesaw, GA D+7
- Bryan, TX D+7
- Sanford, FL D+9
- Jacksonville, NC R+11
- Manteca, CA R+8
- Nashua, NH D+19
- Utica, MI R+22
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.