Middle Lancaster leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 87% of adults in Middle Lancaster typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Middle Lancaster, ~28% vote Democratic, ~59% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Middle Lancaster compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Middle Lancaster leans more Republican than 69 of 145 neighbors.
Middle Lancaster runs about 34 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Why Middle Lancaster leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Middle Lancaster, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 81% of households in Middle Lancaster are family households, about 14 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Middle Lancaster, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Middle Lancaster looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Middle Lancaster is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Middle Lancaster have completed high school, above 93% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Harmony, PA R+32
- Lillyville, PA R+48
- Prospect, PA R+45
- Kennedy Mill, PA R+49
- Fombell, PA R+46
- Portersville, PA R+48
- Zelienople, PA R+22
- Energy, PA R+50
- Ellport, PA R+24
- Mount Chestnut Springs, PA R+44
Cities with Similar Populations
- Rockville, TN R+69
- Seaton, IL R+47
- Rinard, IL R+73
- Spring Glen, UT R+56
- Casselman, PA R+73
- Bentley, OK R+77
- Knoxboro, NY R+47
- Wende, NY R+28
- Belfry, MT R+51
- Devils Elbow, MO R+63
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.