Modello, Leisure City, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Modello

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Modello is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.

 

About 41% of adults in Modello typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Modello, ~20% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Modello compares

Modello runs about 14 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Modello sits closer to the political middle.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Modello. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+5) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 18 points.

Why Modello leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Modello, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Modello votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Modello runs about 14 points more Democratic.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Modello, Leisure City, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Modello looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Modello is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 12 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 70% of households in Modello rent, compared to around 50% in nearby neighborhoods. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 69% of adults in Modello have completed high school, below 95% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.