Wailua leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Wailua typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Wailua, ~39% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Wailua compares
Politically, Wailua sits close to the rest of Hawaii.
Why Wailua leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Wailua. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Wailua, Kapaa, HI sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Wailua looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Wailua is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Hanamaulu, Lihue, HI D+13
- Puhi, Lihue, HI D+17
- North Shore Waialua, Waialua, HI D+20
- North Shore, Haleiwa, HI D+7
- Makakilo-Kapolei-Honokai Hale, Kapolei, HI D+8
- Mililani Waipio Melemanu, Mililani, HI D+17
- Mililani Mauka-Launani Valley, Mililani, HI D+16
- Koolauloa, Laie, HI D+17
- West Loch, Waipahu, HI D+9
- Ewa, Ewa Beach, HI D+6
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Hillcrest, Brooklyn Park, MD D+11
- Villa Park, Trenton, NJ D+39
- Tradition, Port St. Lucie, FL R+14
- Vanderbilt-West End, Nashville, TN D+54
- Goldenwest, Huntington Beach, CA D+6
- Modello, Leisure City, FL Even
- Happy Valley, Bellingham, WA D+69
- Montclair, Augusta, GA Even
- Oak Park, Overland Park, KS D+19
- Eastway-Sheffield Park, Charlotte, NC D+40
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.