Mormon Lake leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Mormon Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mormon Lake, ~23% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mormon Lake compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mormon Lake leans more Republican than 7 of 9 neighbors.
Mormon Lake runs about 26 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why Mormon Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mormon Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in Mormon Lake live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Mormon Lake, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Mormon Lake looks the way it does
Turnout in Mormon Lake sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Munds Park, AZ R+25
- Mountainaire, AZ R+12
- Sedona, AZ D+13
- Big Park, AZ D+17
- West Sedona, AZ D+4
- Flagstaff, AZ D+31
- Doney Park, AZ R+20
- Stoneman Lake, AZ R+39
- Happy Jack, AZ R+39
- Rimmy Jims, AZ D+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Shields, ND R+41
- Alice, ND R+44
- Reva, SD R+88
- Drift Creek, OR R+3
- Ketchumville, NY R+28
- Mount Zion, IA R+51
- Simcoe, ND R+60
- Sherrett, PA R+65
- Gentryville, MO R+68
- Eddyville, PA R+72
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.