Flagstaff leans heavily Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Flagstaff typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Flagstaff, ~44% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Flagstaff compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Flagstaff is the most Democratic-leaning.
Flagstaff runs about 36 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Flagstaff is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Flagstaff. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+52) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 53 points.
Why Flagstaff leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Flagstaff, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 66% of residents in Flagstaff live in densely developed areas, about 30 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Flagstaff sits in the top quarter (about 51%, above 94% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 49% of adults in Flagstaff have never been married, above 98% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Flagstaff, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Flagstaff looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in Flagstaff have completed high school, about 9 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Winona, AZ R+5
- Mountainaire, AZ R+12
- Doney Park, AZ R+20
- Bellemont, AZ R+14
- Long Valley, AZ R+12
- Munds Park, AZ R+25
- Parks, AZ R+44
- Mormon Lake, AZ R+31
- Sedona, AZ D+13
- West Sedona, AZ D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Livermore, CA D+21
- Sioux City, IA R+3
- Bloomington, MN D+32
- Clifton, NJ Even
- Youngstown, OH D+24
- Covington, GA D+22
- Edinburg, TX Even
- Hawthorne, CA D+44
- Tustin, CA D+14
- Thornton, CO D+12
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.