Nesconset leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Nesconset typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Nesconset, ~28% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Nesconset compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Nesconset leans more Republican than 128 of 148 neighbors.
Nesconset runs about 38 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Nesconset is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Nesconset leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Nesconset, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Nesconset votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 97%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 81% of households in Nesconset are family households, above 91% of cities. Nesconset runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Nesconset, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Nesconset looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Nesconset is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Nesconset have completed high school, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake Grove, NY R+24
- Village of the Branch, NY R+23
- St. James, NY R+25
- Ronkonkoma, NY R+26
- Lake Ronkonkoma, NY R+22
- Islandia, NY D+4
- Head of the Harbor, NY R+16
- Hauppauge, NY R+20
- Smithtown, NY R+27
- Centereach, NY R+19
Cities with Similar Populations
- Victor, NY D+3
- College Park, GA D+79
- Oregon, WI D+25
- Sanger, TX R+51
- Madisonville, TN R+68
- Savannah, TN R+64
- Mountain Top, PA R+18
- Oil City, PA R+33
- Fort Mohave, AZ R+43
- Smithfield, UT R+51
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.