Newcastle leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Newcastle typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Newcastle, ~27% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Newcastle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Newcastle leans more Republican than 49 of 67 neighbors.
Newcastle runs about 49 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Newcastle is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Newcastle. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+35) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+23), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Newcastle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Newcastle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Newcastle votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Newcastle runs about 49 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Newcastle runs against that pattern.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Newcastle, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Newcastle looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Newcastle is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 72%, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Newcastle own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Penryn, CA R+32
- Loomis, CA R+24
- North Auburn, CA R+13
- Auburn, CA R+12
- Pilot Hill, CA R+22
- Rocklin, CA R+9
- Lincoln, CA R+17
- Cool, CA R+16
- Clipper Gap, CA R+25
- Granite Bay, CA R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Baxter, TN R+64
- Timberlake, NC R+44
- Palmyra, NJ D+24
- Monticello, IL R+27
- Idabel, OK R+22
- Edna, TX R+52
- Coal Township, PA R+35
- Waveland, MS R+41
- Wellston, OH R+55
- Fircrest, WA D+34
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.