North Carrollton leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 68% of adults in North Carrollton typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in North Carrollton, ~20% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How North Carrollton compares
Among cities within 25 miles, North Carrollton leans more Republican than 22 of 36 neighbors.
North Carrollton runs about 16 points more Republican than Mississippi as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within North Carrollton. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+85), a spread of about 92 points.
Why North Carrollton leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for North Carrollton, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in North Carrollton drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; North Carrollton, MS sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in North Carrollton looks the way it does
Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and North Carrollton sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Carrollton, MS R+62
- Mc Carley, MS R+32
- Valley Hill, MS R+85
- Jefferson, MS R+81
- Coila, MS R+19
- Winona, MS D+6
- Avalon, MS R+80
- Nason, MS R+38
- Wiltshire, MS D+19
- Gravel Hill, MS D+35
Cities with Similar Populations
- West Oneonta, NY R+11
- Rock Island, OK R+73
- Fearsville, KY R+69
- Kerr, AR R+17
- Sutton, VT R+20
- North Walpole, NH R+11
- Lydia, MN R+33
- Lincoln, TX R+66
- Wharton, OH R+66
- Buckley, IL R+53
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.