Northgate leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Northgate typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Northgate, ~42% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Northgate compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Northgate is the least Democratic-leaning.
Northgate runs about 21 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Northgate. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+49) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+29), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Northgate leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Northgate. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with renter-heavy households tend to turn out at a lower rate; Northgate, San Rafael, CA sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Northgate looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 7% of homes in Northgate have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Terra Linda, San Rafael, CA D+43
- Marinwood, San Rafael, CA D+42
- Lincoln, San Rafael, CA D+51
- Point Richmond, Richmond, CA D+66
- Atchison Woods, Richmond, CA D+55
- Iron Triangle, Richmond, CA D+54
- Belding Woods, Richmond, CA D+49
- Fairmede-Hilltop, San Pablo, CA D+56
- Coronado, Richmond, CA D+64
- North and East, Richmond, CA D+55
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Chinatown, Philadelphia, PA D+61
- Central Carrollton, Carrollton, TX D+8
- Duluth Heights, Duluth, MN D+16
- Rancho Sahuarita, Sahuarita, AZ R+5
- Union-Miles Park, Cleveland, OH D+87
- West Newton, Newton, MA D+60
- Fairview, Camden, NJ D+55
- Cherry Hill, Brooklyn, MD D+82
- Woodley Park, Washington, DC D+80
- Mid-Westside, Jacksonville, FL D+82
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.