Ontario, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Ontario

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Ontario leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.

 

About 87% of adults in Ontario typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ontario, ~34% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Ontario compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Ontario leans more Republican than 52 of 73 neighbors.

Ontario runs about 35 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Ontario is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ontario. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 14 points.

Why Ontario leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ontario, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Ontario votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Ontario runs about 35 points more Republican. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Ontario runs against that pattern.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Ontario, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Ontario looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Ontario is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.