Ontario on the Lake, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Ontario on the Lake

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Ontario on the Lake leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.

 

About 91% of adults in Ontario on the Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ontario on the Lake, ~38% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Ontario on the Lake compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Ontario on the Lake leans more Republican than 33 of 61 neighbors.

Ontario on the Lake runs about 29 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Ontario on the Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Why Ontario on the Lake leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ontario on the Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Ontario on the Lake votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Ontario on the Lake runs about 29 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in Ontario on the Lake are family households, above 77% of cities.

Homeownership and voter turnout

Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Ontario on the Lake, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Ontario on the Lake looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Ontario on the Lake is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 96% of households in Ontario on the Lake own their home, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Ontario on the Lake have completed high school, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.