Paynes Creek leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Paynes Creek typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Paynes Creek, ~20% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Paynes Creek compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Paynes Creek leans more Republican than 6 of 15 neighbors.
Paynes Creek runs about 59 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Paynes Creek is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Paynes Creek leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Paynes Creek, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Paynes Creek votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Paynes Creek runs about 59 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and Paynes Creek sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 4%, below 84% of cities). Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Paynes Creek sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 86% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Paynes Creek, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Paynes Creek looks the way it does
Turnout in Paynes Creek sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Manton, CA R+38
- Mineral, CA R+39
- Shingletown, CA R+38
- Viola, CA R+35
- Balls Ferry, CA R+50
- Whitmore, CA R+41
- Dairyville, CA R+45
- Millville, CA R+44
- Mill Creek, CA R+40
Cities with Similar Populations
- Plevna, MT R+78
- Waterbury, NE R+60
- Henderson, IA R+48
- Mellette, OK R+65
- Burbank, OK R+70
- Golden Beach, MD R+38
- Cassel, CA R+43
- Barnard, VT D+25
- Nancy Wrights Corner, VA R+47
- Darlington, ID R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.